Monday, September 10, 2007
Friday, September 7, 2007
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Friday, August 31, 2007
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Monday, August 20, 2007
Friday, August 17, 2007
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Monday, August 13, 2007
Friday, August 10, 2007
Post Match - Live
P/L has been up and down all day, but it appears there is an invisible barrier around the +30 mark which I cannot overcome. Better call it a day before i regret. That's half of yesterday's losses back.
+32
+32
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Post Match - Live
I wrote on my prep:
"Today the trend says up, but i think we may go down"
What did I do all day? BUY
What did the market do all day? SELL
THINK TWICE ABOUT PICKING BOTTOMS DURING A SELL-OFF !!!!
Mark told me to clip 5 lots.
"Today the trend says up, but i think we may go down"
What did I do all day? BUY
What did the market do all day? SELL
THINK TWICE ABOUT PICKING BOTTOMS DURING A SELL-OFF !!!!
Mark told me to clip 5 lots.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Monday, August 6, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Post Match - Live
Maximum expected potential of trades executed: 142
Real best potential of trades executed: 60
Actual P/L: -30
AAAAARGGGHH!!
Avoid getting into a race to be flat just because you've lost some money early on.
Real best potential of trades executed: 60
Actual P/L: -30
AAAAARGGGHH!!
Avoid getting into a race to be flat just because you've lost some money early on.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Post Match - Live
Maximum expected potential of trades executed: 367
Real best potential of trades executed: 203
Actual P/L: -34
ARGGH!!!!
Real best potential of trades executed: 203
Actual P/L: -34
ARGGH!!!!
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Friday, July 27, 2007
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Post Match - Live
Got to 20 ticks up selling on the highs
Could have made another 20 had i been filled as market was selling off, instead picking unchartered bounce levels lost 24
-4
Could have made another 20 had i been filled as market was selling off, instead picking unchartered bounce levels lost 24
-4
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Post Match - Live
11:11 -1 @ 4491 +1 @ 4494 -3
Short as volume picked up after a break of the morning trendline, and price dipped below the 4493 50% retracement on friday sell-off, which was also midpoint of morning range. Expected a test of the lower end of the range with exit around 4482. Stopped out back above level.
Chris suggested looking at immediately prior bounce prices as stop-loss levels
14:37 +1 @ 4453 -1 @ 4452
14:37 +1 @ 4451 -1 @ 4452 0
Market hitting support trendline on daily chart after sell-off. Held 8 ticks onside, expecting a further push back if we broke back above 4460. Scratched.
Was also tempted to reverse at entry because of the prevailing selloff. But hesitated to do so as this was still a strong support area.
15:33 No trade
Wanted to get in on SP at 15375 which was fridays low, for a possible gap fill play to the upside.
15:39 -1 @ 4443 +1 @ 4440 +3
New lows, SP breaks 15375. Oil doesn't stop dumping
16:01 +1 @ 4444 -1 @ 4443 -1
Possible low
16:08 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4429 +3
Break through friday's low. Should have reversed on exit, this could be the hammer I was waiting for.
16:16 -1 @ 4436 +1 @ 4439 -3
Possible bounce off previous short term support turned resistance at 4437
16:17 +1 @ 4440 -1 @ 4441 +1
Overall thought of going long around 30's because oil was holding back above 73 and market seems to be waiting for a strong bounce to signal recovery turning point.
17:00 -1 @ 4459 +1 @ 4456 +3
On the hour 4460 ticked back, which was the level a prior trade failed to reach. Took out profit early to end up on the day.
+3
Short as volume picked up after a break of the morning trendline, and price dipped below the 4493 50% retracement on friday sell-off, which was also midpoint of morning range. Expected a test of the lower end of the range with exit around 4482. Stopped out back above level.
Chris suggested looking at immediately prior bounce prices as stop-loss levels
14:37 +1 @ 4453 -1 @ 4452
14:37 +1 @ 4451 -1 @ 4452 0
Market hitting support trendline on daily chart after sell-off. Held 8 ticks onside, expecting a further push back if we broke back above 4460. Scratched.
Was also tempted to reverse at entry because of the prevailing selloff. But hesitated to do so as this was still a strong support area.
15:33 No trade
Wanted to get in on SP at 15375 which was fridays low, for a possible gap fill play to the upside.
15:39 -1 @ 4443 +1 @ 4440 +3
New lows, SP breaks 15375. Oil doesn't stop dumping
16:01 +1 @ 4444 -1 @ 4443 -1
Possible low
16:08 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4429 +3
Break through friday's low. Should have reversed on exit, this could be the hammer I was waiting for.
16:16 -1 @ 4436 +1 @ 4439 -3
Possible bounce off previous short term support turned resistance at 4437
16:17 +1 @ 4440 -1 @ 4441 +1
Overall thought of going long around 30's because oil was holding back above 73 and market seems to be waiting for a strong bounce to signal recovery turning point.
17:00 -1 @ 4459 +1 @ 4456 +3
On the hour 4460 ticked back, which was the level a prior trade failed to reach. Took out profit early to end up on the day.
+3
Monday, July 23, 2007
Post Match - Live
08:04 -1 @ 4465 +1 @ 4470 -5
Early short in case we never return to the open level
08:31 -1 @ 4480 +1 @ 4475 +5
First resistance around 4482, took profit to cover previous loss.
09:28 +1 @ 4467 -1 @ 4462 -5
09:28 +1 @ 4464 -1 @ 4462 -2
Early support trend forming: broke.
09:34 -1 @ 4458 +1 @ 4456 +2
09:34 +1 @ 4456 -1 @ 4453 -3
Support at market open. 1 scalp towards the other to hold, but had to scramble out as it appeared this level was not holding
09:35 -1 @ 4453 +1 @ 4455 -2
09:35 -1 @ 4454 +1 @ 4458 -4
reversed, but hit daily loss limit after spike back up.
Chasing the market too much too early. Consider WIDER stops, 10 ticks perhaps as you are getting direction right a lot of the time, but having to scrap positions because of volatility at entry point.
17:00 -1 @ 4496 +1 @ 4495 +1
Some resistance after a rallie to 50% retracement level
Highs were exactly at 4507, where i was tempted to short as this was a level of mine.
-13
Early short in case we never return to the open level
08:31 -1 @ 4480 +1 @ 4475 +5
First resistance around 4482, took profit to cover previous loss.
09:28 +1 @ 4467 -1 @ 4462 -5
09:28 +1 @ 4464 -1 @ 4462 -2
Early support trend forming: broke.
09:34 -1 @ 4458 +1 @ 4456 +2
09:34 +1 @ 4456 -1 @ 4453 -3
Support at market open. 1 scalp towards the other to hold, but had to scramble out as it appeared this level was not holding
09:35 -1 @ 4453 +1 @ 4455 -2
09:35 -1 @ 4454 +1 @ 4458 -4
reversed, but hit daily loss limit after spike back up.
Chasing the market too much too early. Consider WIDER stops, 10 ticks perhaps as you are getting direction right a lot of the time, but having to scrap positions because of volatility at entry point.
17:00 -1 @ 4496 +1 @ 4495 +1
Some resistance after a rallie to 50% retracement level
Highs were exactly at 4507, where i was tempted to short as this was a level of mine.
-13
Friday, July 20, 2007
Post Match - Live
Been up and down like a yoyo. Once again directional sentiment has been overall correct, but timing and tight stops have stopped me from making potential profits.
+16
+16
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Post Match - Live
12:07 +1 @ 4518 -1 @ 4529 +11
Long on low, good outlook for
14:38 +1 @ 4540 -1 @ 4544 +4
Resistance at 40 expecting a push up to yest high
15:01 +1 @ 4547 -1 @ 4545 -2
15:01 +1 @ 4546 -1 @ 4545 -1
Looked like trend was ticking up and up steadily
15:01 -1 @ 4545 +1 @ 4548 -3
Thought we had hit the highs of the day, as there was considerable resitance
15:06 -1 @ 4546 +1 @ 4553 -7
15:39 -1 @ 4549 +1 @ 4553 -4
Same. This time DJ rallied on 14000 mark i had to scramble out
15:42 -1 @ 4555 +1 @ 4555 0
Expected market to go to 37, just as we had previously retreated last time the mark was hit a few days ago. Went up to 10 ticks on side, but then came back and hit the stop order i had in breakeven
16:21 +2 @ 4545 -1 @ 4541 -8
As uptrend had been sustained clearly all afternoon, expected recovery on any correction.
16:46 +1 @ 4539 -1 @ 4535 -4
16:46 +1 @ 4537 -1 @ 4534 -3
Same
16:49 +1 @ 4535 -1 @ 4526 -9
Same
Shame I had nearly recovered yesterdays losses. Saw opportunities to get in at extremes, but had to cut position to limit short term losses, which add up.
-24
Long on low, good outlook for
14:38 +1 @ 4540 -1 @ 4544 +4
Resistance at 40 expecting a push up to yest high
15:01 +1 @ 4547 -1 @ 4545 -2
15:01 +1 @ 4546 -1 @ 4545 -1
Looked like trend was ticking up and up steadily
15:01 -1 @ 4545 +1 @ 4548 -3
Thought we had hit the highs of the day, as there was considerable resitance
15:06 -1 @ 4546 +1 @ 4553 -7
15:39 -1 @ 4549 +1 @ 4553 -4
Same. This time DJ rallied on 14000 mark i had to scramble out
15:42 -1 @ 4555 +1 @ 4555 0
Expected market to go to 37, just as we had previously retreated last time the mark was hit a few days ago. Went up to 10 ticks on side, but then came back and hit the stop order i had in breakeven
16:21 +2 @ 4545 -1 @ 4541 -8
As uptrend had been sustained clearly all afternoon, expected recovery on any correction.
16:46 +1 @ 4539 -1 @ 4535 -4
16:46 +1 @ 4537 -1 @ 4534 -3
Same
16:49 +1 @ 4535 -1 @ 4526 -9
Same
Shame I had nearly recovered yesterdays losses. Saw opportunities to get in at extremes, but had to cut position to limit short term losses, which add up.
-24
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Post Match - Live
10:13 +1 @ 4501 -1 @ 4501 0
Went long on opening price after initial move had already bounced once at it, and was close to 50% of previous high to low on daily chart. Scratched as it came back, but price subsequently moved to 4510.
10:43 -1 @ 4501 +1 @ 4501 0
10:51 -1 @ 4501 +1 @ 4507 -6
10:51 -1 @ 4502 +1 @ 4507 -5
On third test thought it could break to the downside. Scratched after it came back from 5 ticks on side. Then went back in again but this time I was wrong, so I got out of my position after reaching 1st downside limit.
14:32 -1 @ 4520 +1 @ 4520 0
Entered after price had reversed at a daily support turned resistance, which served also as a bottom neckline and it went through some support around what had been the POC of last thursday. No volume to support a breakout came about, so this was scratched.
14:58 -1 @ 4527 +1 @ 4527 0
15:19 -1 @ 4527 +1 @ 4521 +6
15:37 +1 @ 4522 -1 @ 4524 +2
Shorting at the higher extreme of the range, with a stop target just above the high. Took some profit at previous support level (shame it went 4 ticks further), then nicked a couple of more ticks on the reversal.
15:42 -1 @ 4528 +1 @ 4529 +1
15:43 -1 @ 4528 +1 @ 4528 0
15:43 -1 @ 4534 +1 @ 4538 -4
16:00 -1 @ 4537+1 @ 4541 -4
Still aiming to short the extreme expecting a solid moved down. Close tracking S&P retracement levels continued to indicate a bias to the downside because of a failure to go much further above 15565, and DAX was still bearishly hovering below 8000. Unfortunately, that 8.000 mark was broken in a rally which forced me out.
16:00 +1 @ 4542 -1 @ 4541 -1
Rally in DAX was holding till Bernanke opened his mouth.
Overall I failed to believe that despite it's size, the market still wanted to fill the opening gap.
-17
Went long on opening price after initial move had already bounced once at it, and was close to 50% of previous high to low on daily chart. Scratched as it came back, but price subsequently moved to 4510.
10:43 -1 @ 4501 +1 @ 4501 0
10:51 -1 @ 4501 +1 @ 4507 -6
10:51 -1 @ 4502 +1 @ 4507 -5
On third test thought it could break to the downside. Scratched after it came back from 5 ticks on side. Then went back in again but this time I was wrong, so I got out of my position after reaching 1st downside limit.
14:32 -1 @ 4520 +1 @ 4520 0
Entered after price had reversed at a daily support turned resistance, which served also as a bottom neckline and it went through some support around what had been the POC of last thursday. No volume to support a breakout came about, so this was scratched.
14:58 -1 @ 4527 +1 @ 4527 0
15:19 -1 @ 4527 +1 @ 4521 +6
15:37 +1 @ 4522 -1 @ 4524 +2
Shorting at the higher extreme of the range, with a stop target just above the high. Took some profit at previous support level (shame it went 4 ticks further), then nicked a couple of more ticks on the reversal.
15:42 -1 @ 4528 +1 @ 4529 +1
15:43 -1 @ 4528 +1 @ 4528 0
15:43 -1 @ 4534 +1 @ 4538 -4
16:00 -1 @ 4537+1 @ 4541 -4
Still aiming to short the extreme expecting a solid moved down. Close tracking S&P retracement levels continued to indicate a bias to the downside because of a failure to go much further above 15565, and DAX was still bearishly hovering below 8000. Unfortunately, that 8.000 mark was broken in a rally which forced me out.
16:00 +1 @ 4542 -1 @ 4541 -1
Rally in DAX was holding till Bernanke opened his mouth.
Overall I failed to believe that despite it's size, the market still wanted to fill the opening gap.
-17
Monday, July 16, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Monday, July 9, 2007
Friday, July 6, 2007
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Post Match
So, market didn't even reach 4608, a clear indication that the double bottom reversal was to take place. Price didn't drop below the 50% of the previous recovery, nor below a MA. So it looks like an open battle still, with a mid-term bias to the upside. Volatility playing catch-up from holiday sessions, could be some more people involved tomorrow on NFP.
+39
+39
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Post Match
08:09 +1 @ 4529 -1 @ 4529 0
08:26 +1 @ 4531 -1 @ 4533 -2
Possible bounce off early highs.
10:51 -1 @ 4547 +1 @ 4542 +5
Sideways environment called for trading on the extremes
16:05 -3 @ ~4549 +3 @ ~4547 +7
Failed attempt to go higher after figure. Very little activity on week of US independance commemoration.
+10
08:26 +1 @ 4531 -1 @ 4533 -2
Possible bounce off early highs.
10:51 -1 @ 4547 +1 @ 4542 +5
Sideways environment called for trading on the extremes
16:05 -3 @ ~4549 +3 @ ~4547 +7
Failed attempt to go higher after figure. Very little activity on week of US independance commemoration.
+10
Monday, July 2, 2007
Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Post Match
Off to a good start as I bought into dips at fib levels thinking the market would want to consolidate above yesterday's highs then pushing further. Unfortunately, because I was expecting a longer positive run, I left some lots on side that i ended up having to scratch.
Later in the day I was still betting on a move out of the range, so although I had been well on side several times, i did not make the most of these trades as both extremes were tested.
5 min to 6PM i wanted to scratch a bit out of a possible break above the highs to close in the green. Again, just as i exited to write this, for a very modest gain, the market rallied 19 ticks!.
+16
Later in the day I was still betting on a move out of the range, so although I had been well on side several times, i did not make the most of these trades as both extremes were tested.
5 min to 6PM i wanted to scratch a bit out of a possible break above the highs to close in the green. Again, just as i exited to write this, for a very modest gain, the market rallied 19 ticks!.
+16
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Post Match
08:05 +1 @ 4434 -1 @ 4434 0
08:29 +1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4438 +8
+1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4442 +12
Early trading saw two attempts against daily support trendline, but several more to tests above yesterdays low.
10:55 +1 @ 4426 -1 @ 4434 +8
Another test of the lows. But got out too early.
Several trades scratched due to lack of directional move, even pulled position too early on Durable Goods figure, missing out on the 18 tick drop.
14:42 -1 @ 4422 +1 @ 4424 -2
62% retracement of figure move. Waiting too long for sellers to drive the market back down.
15:57 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4428 +4
Early support turned resistance. Over high volatility only expecting a bounce.
I was tempted to take a short position on both late bounces at 4447 (around a 50% retracement against yesterday's high), but didn't want to risk losing.
+30
08:29 +1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4438 +8
+1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4442 +12
Early trading saw two attempts against daily support trendline, but several more to tests above yesterdays low.
10:55 +1 @ 4426 -1 @ 4434 +8
Another test of the lows. But got out too early.
Several trades scratched due to lack of directional move, even pulled position too early on Durable Goods figure, missing out on the 18 tick drop.
14:42 -1 @ 4422 +1 @ 4424 -2
62% retracement of figure move. Waiting too long for sellers to drive the market back down.
15:57 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4428 +4
Early support turned resistance. Over high volatility only expecting a bounce.
I was tempted to take a short position on both late bounces at 4447 (around a 50% retracement against yesterday's high), but didn't want to risk losing.
+30
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Post Match
10:52 +4 @ 4457 -4 @ ~ 4464 +28
In keeping with a bullish view of recovery from set backs I went long on a first tentative on the lows of yesterday, once volume started picking up. Steady buys helped gain some profit and I eited as signs of exhaustion appeared.
14:24 +1 @ 4483 -1 @ 4483 0
Expected a bounce off new support trendline crossing 50% retracement level. This did not materialize and volume was scarce. Luckily existed a few minutes before the market dropped a sudden 10 ticks.
16:04 -1 @ 4476 -1 @ 4483 -7
Went short on the bearish figure. Market rallied and I scrambled out.
16:06 -1 @ 4493 +1 @ 4490 +3
As buying started to weaken, shorted close to the highs for a quick bounce, aiming only at getting back a bit of the loss. Price subsequently dropped back to the lows! Ouch.
17:09 +1 @ 4459 -1 @ 4465 +6
Repetition of the morning trade of the lows.
+30
In keeping with a bullish view of recovery from set backs I went long on a first tentative on the lows of yesterday, once volume started picking up. Steady buys helped gain some profit and I eited as signs of exhaustion appeared.
14:24 +1 @ 4483 -1 @ 4483 0
Expected a bounce off new support trendline crossing 50% retracement level. This did not materialize and volume was scarce. Luckily existed a few minutes before the market dropped a sudden 10 ticks.
16:04 -1 @ 4476 -1 @ 4483 -7
Went short on the bearish figure. Market rallied and I scrambled out.
16:06 -1 @ 4493 +1 @ 4490 +3
As buying started to weaken, shorted close to the highs for a quick bounce, aiming only at getting back a bit of the loss. Price subsequently dropped back to the lows! Ouch.
17:09 +1 @ 4459 -1 @ 4465 +6
Repetition of the morning trade of the lows.
+30
Monday, June 25, 2007
Post Match
09:57 +5 @ ~ 4462 -5 @ ~ 4465 +13
Expecting market to bounce off lows. Let some run, but had to scratch as they came back after being further 6 ticks onside.
15:30 +2 @ 4469 -2 @ 4466
-2 @ 4468 +2 @ 4469
-2 @ 4474 +1 @ 4468 +1 @ 4464
+1 @ 4462 -1 @ 4461
+1 @ 4458 -1 @ 4461 +10
Still expecting a recover went long close to lows, adding on top of further incursions past the lows. Would have liked to hold for longer as the awaited rally materialized just a few minutes later.
16:04 -1 @ 4471 +1 @ 4471 0
Had become a support level midmorning, could have been target for bounce.
17:17 -3 @ ~4506 + 3 @ 4506 0
Expecting a bounce off levels around 5404, struggled to at least end flat, although market did eventually rectrace somewhat.
Having correctly predicted a recovery, it is perhaps a shame I didn't manage the low bounce trade optimally. The urge to take profits amidst hightened volatility weighed negatively against the positive outcome potential.
+23
Expecting market to bounce off lows. Let some run, but had to scratch as they came back after being further 6 ticks onside.
15:30 +2 @ 4469 -2 @ 4466
-2 @ 4468 +2 @ 4469
-2 @ 4474 +1 @ 4468 +1 @ 4464
+1 @ 4462 -1 @ 4461
+1 @ 4458 -1 @ 4461 +10
Still expecting a recover went long close to lows, adding on top of further incursions past the lows. Would have liked to hold for longer as the awaited rally materialized just a few minutes later.
16:04 -1 @ 4471 +1 @ 4471 0
Had become a support level midmorning, could have been target for bounce.
17:17 -3 @ ~4506 + 3 @ 4506 0
Expecting a bounce off levels around 5404, struggled to at least end flat, although market did eventually rectrace somewhat.
Having correctly predicted a recovery, it is perhaps a shame I didn't manage the low bounce trade optimally. The urge to take profits amidst hightened volatility weighed negatively against the positive outcome potential.
+23
Friday, June 22, 2007
Post Match
Initial prediction of further recovery was incorrect, because some strong selling did push the price closer to the lows. Although it remains to be seen if it finally breaks or bounces.
Early gains gave me some breathing space to play scalper games later in the day. Concentrating mostly on new Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. Due to increased volatility with less clear moves a little averaging was called for, as momentum fits and starts gave indications of possible reversals.
Overall a positive week in terms of P&L.
+28
Early gains gave me some breathing space to play scalper games later in the day. Concentrating mostly on new Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. Due to increased volatility with less clear moves a little averaging was called for, as momentum fits and starts gave indications of possible reversals.
Overall a positive week in terms of P&L.
+28
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Post Match
Early trading went well as I succesfully traded some resistance levels on the highs of the day.
Later in the morning I took a blip out of a pause on the selling at 4526, which was an old level.
Over lunch I had left some orders (it's a sim) to go long at the open on yesterday's low. Market did at first go onside, but by the time I was back price had broken through to the intermediate low of 4505.
Trying to recover on small size, my position was unfortunately stopped out automatically at 4504 with only 6 contracts traded, which I deemed probably would not have happened IF I WERE LIVE.
Now in the red I ditched the idea of recovering on small size and small stops, and so went all-in with larger positions and managed to recover. XD. Still these trades were legitimised on my firm conviction price would break the 4500 mark after scalper buyers were exhausted.
After this recovery, intensive trading with smaller size on new fibonacci retracements and extensions proved overall ok as I end up, even having scrambled out of many good trades.
On a day like today I wish there were no stops.
+10
Later in the morning I took a blip out of a pause on the selling at 4526, which was an old level.
Over lunch I had left some orders (it's a sim) to go long at the open on yesterday's low. Market did at first go onside, but by the time I was back price had broken through to the intermediate low of 4505.
Trying to recover on small size, my position was unfortunately stopped out automatically at 4504 with only 6 contracts traded, which I deemed probably would not have happened IF I WERE LIVE.
Now in the red I ditched the idea of recovering on small size and small stops, and so went all-in with larger positions and managed to recover. XD. Still these trades were legitimised on my firm conviction price would break the 4500 mark after scalper buyers were exhausted.
After this recovery, intensive trading with smaller size on new fibonacci retracements and extensions proved overall ok as I end up, even having scrambled out of many good trades.
On a day like today I wish there were no stops.
+10
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Post Match
09:04 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4583 0
Expecting a test on high of 4592. Went 5 ticks on side, but scratched after first retreat before it reached target.
09:50 -1 @4592 +1 @ 4590 +2
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
Rebound off highs before definite break, took profit early as I sensed trouble in reaching 4588.
10:06 +1 @ 4594 -1 @ 4594 0
Trying for a scalp towards retest of new highs, but scratched as market turned back. 2 min later the move happened.
14:21 -1 @ 4606 +1 @ 4602 +2
Upwards move appeared to have stalled ahead of data. Again secured gains early on retreat.
15:06 +1 @ 4599 -1 @ 4599 0
+1 @ 4595 -1 @ 4596 +1
Expecting a 4599 to hold, albeit a minor blip through. Scratched early as recovery took long to develop.
15:53 +1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Picked a bottom for a contrarian trade.
16:05 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
Expected market to hit 4571 level and placed a short scalp trade. Bounced earlier and I scrambled out. At this point I abandoned the idea of guessing bottoms.
+7
5 consecutive days in the green!
Expecting a test on high of 4592. Went 5 ticks on side, but scratched after first retreat before it reached target.
09:50 -1 @4592 +1 @ 4590 +2
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
Rebound off highs before definite break, took profit early as I sensed trouble in reaching 4588.
10:06 +1 @ 4594 -1 @ 4594 0
Trying for a scalp towards retest of new highs, but scratched as market turned back. 2 min later the move happened.
14:21 -1 @ 4606 +1 @ 4602 +2
Upwards move appeared to have stalled ahead of data. Again secured gains early on retreat.
15:06 +1 @ 4599 -1 @ 4599 0
+1 @ 4595 -1 @ 4596 +1
Expecting a 4599 to hold, albeit a minor blip through. Scratched early as recovery took long to develop.
15:53 +1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Picked a bottom for a contrarian trade.
16:05 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
Expected market to hit 4571 level and placed a short scalp trade. Bounced earlier and I scrambled out. At this point I abandoned the idea of guessing bottoms.
+7
5 consecutive days in the green!
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Post Match
08:41 +1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4568 +2
+1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4566 0
Went long along the lows of what could be the lows of the IB, based on the POC of yesterday afternoon's session. Profit taking was early and scratch was because I didn't fancy loosing on the 1st trade of the day after being on-side.
09:12 +1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4580 0
+1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4577 -3
+1 @ 4583 -1@ 4577 -6
From fullfilled expectations on early trading, was to test the 4585 level where I had resting orders to reverse. High came in 2 ticks away.
11:06 +1 @ 4571 -1 @4577 +6
Narrow trading range induced me to believe the mid-range level of 4571 would allow for sufficient support for a small profit taking excercise.
11:14 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4561 +5
Range extension past low, to pause around the marabuzo of last friday's rally on CPI data.
14:24 +1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4555 +3
+1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4552 0
After slightly bearish ZEW data, expected to see a bounce on my levels of either 52 or 50, where I had resting orders. Unfortunately an unwillingness to risk twice on the same trade left me a ridiculuos profit of 3 ticks against the subsequent potential of 92.
16:28 +1 @ 4563 -1 @ 4567 +4
Market appeared unable to break through the lows, even with the heaviest trading in the day. Scalped long on the first signs of a blip up.
Researching for a bayesian approach to the probability of positive yields from human-filtered trade opportunities, I stumbled upon a study that compares the results of the financial decision making of emotional investors to rational (based on bayesian inference) and noise traders. The model simulation finds that despite their apparent simplistic strategy and non-traditionalist revision of beliefs, emotional traders can even dominate the market and survive with consitent profitability in the long run.
+11
+1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4566 0
Went long along the lows of what could be the lows of the IB, based on the POC of yesterday afternoon's session. Profit taking was early and scratch was because I didn't fancy loosing on the 1st trade of the day after being on-side.
09:12 +1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4580 0
+1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4577 -3
+1 @ 4583 -1@ 4577 -6
From fullfilled expectations on early trading, was to test the 4585 level where I had resting orders to reverse. High came in 2 ticks away.
11:06 +1 @ 4571 -1 @4577 +6
Narrow trading range induced me to believe the mid-range level of 4571 would allow for sufficient support for a small profit taking excercise.
11:14 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4561 +5
Range extension past low, to pause around the marabuzo of last friday's rally on CPI data.
14:24 +1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4555 +3
+1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4552 0
After slightly bearish ZEW data, expected to see a bounce on my levels of either 52 or 50, where I had resting orders. Unfortunately an unwillingness to risk twice on the same trade left me a ridiculuos profit of 3 ticks against the subsequent potential of 92.
16:28 +1 @ 4563 -1 @ 4567 +4
Market appeared unable to break through the lows, even with the heaviest trading in the day. Scalped long on the first signs of a blip up.
Researching for a bayesian approach to the probability of positive yields from human-filtered trade opportunities, I stumbled upon a study that compares the results of the financial decision making of emotional investors to rational (based on bayesian inference) and noise traders. The model simulation finds that despite their apparent simplistic strategy and non-traditionalist revision of beliefs, emotional traders can even dominate the market and survive with consitent profitability in the long run.
+11
Monday, June 18, 2007
Post Match
09:42 +3 @ 4590 -2 @ 4592 -1 @ 4590 +4
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
Friday, June 15, 2007
Post Match
11:36 -1 @ 4543 +1 @ 4543 0
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Post Match
-5 Misclicked
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Post Match
09:22 +1 @ 4356 -1 @ 4358 +2
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Post Match
(08:00 +1 @4424 -1 @ 4407 -15)
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
Monday, June 11, 2007
Post Match
9:28 -1 @ 4399 +1 @ 4405 -6
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
Thursday, March 22, 2007
NLP and psychocrap
Do not blame the job, blame own behaviour for physical exhaustion and sleep depravation. It is necessary to disconnect the brain from thorough thinking or else rest does not come. I also recognize it is imperative to focus on the task of trading and not get distracted. Try turning the PC screen off. Forget artificial lights at night, try have natural light/dark cycle dictate sleep patterns.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Not got it
Today I did not pick good entry points and stops. Not so with levels. Identifying at what price the battle plays out appears not to be a problem, but is getting in at the right time and in the right direction most definitely has been. Constantly getting stopped out at the extremes!!! Only two winning trades, result of trailing stops, but because they were triggered profits did not hit maximum potential.
14 roundtrips, -44 p&l
14 roundtrips, -44 p&l
Monday, January 22, 2007
What moves the Euro Area bond markets: Summary
In general, adjustments to prices are quick and new information is usually incorporated into prices within five minutes of announcements. The volatility adjustment is more long-lasting and excess volatility can be observe up to 30 minutes after the releases. Overall, German bond markets tend to react more strongly to the surprise component in US macro releases compared to the euro area and domestic releases, and the strength of these reactions to US releases has increased over the period considered.
Highlights
Highlights
- Evidence is provided that the outcome of the German employment reports is known to investors ahead of the pre-scheduled release.
- Long-term bond yields can be seen as a weighted average of current and expected short -term interest rates over the maturity of the bond.
- Market participants may draw inferences about the euro area economy from US data releases. Only euro area releases that cause investors to revise their inferences should lead to market reactions.
- The announcements that seem to have a significant impact on long-term US bond yields are:
- Non-Farm Payroll
- Industrial Production
- New Home Sales
- Durable Goods Orders
- Producer Price Index
- Consumer Price Index
- Consumer Confidence Index
- ISM Manufacturing Index
- Housing Starts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- It is not clear if the strong observed price sensitivity for euro area bond yields from US macro announcements reflects real economy revisions and/or if it merely mirrors the strong financial integration between the two economies.
- The relation between target rate surprises and bond yields becomes negative when the slope of the curve is particularly steep.
- The surprise component is measured as [Surprise = (Actual - Expected)/Forecast Std. Error Deviation]
- Actual and forward looking measures of real economic activity and unemployment releases have a larger impact compared to price announcements.
- There is an immediate jump in the futures prices at the time of the announcement and little reaction thereafter.
- Policymakers can sometimes signal a preference for one or more macroeconomic indicators as input to their policy decisions for a given period.
- Key macroeconomic variables for countries which are growing in importance for the world economy may consequently over time retrieve increase attention.
Monday, January 8, 2007
Post Match
I started the day with what I believed was a good preparation. In this preparation I accounted for the possibility that today could be a very quiet day in terms of price movement.
With the past two days experience I was determined not to chase the price action and get caught into the trap of trading without any conviction about direction. Nevertheless to start the day off I did get involved at levels that I thougth could hold. Having tried these on several occasions and getting the direction wront I decided to stay out until a move.
I think overall I did ok, in comparison with previous sessions, as I got half of the initial losses back from the only decent move all day. Nevertheless perhaps if I had not rushed into the market at the start of the day, even if I had only done 1 winning trade, that would have ultimately yielded a positive P&L.
I did not see any good range trading opportunities today and given the amount I had lost already it would hace been too much of a gamble. For tomorrow I hope to see some movement to the quality of my level picking. It if range trades I shall stay in only if the market goes immediately on my side.
With the past two days experience I was determined not to chase the price action and get caught into the trap of trading without any conviction about direction. Nevertheless to start the day off I did get involved at levels that I thougth could hold. Having tried these on several occasions and getting the direction wront I decided to stay out until a move.
I think overall I did ok, in comparison with previous sessions, as I got half of the initial losses back from the only decent move all day. Nevertheless perhaps if I had not rushed into the market at the start of the day, even if I had only done 1 winning trade, that would have ultimately yielded a positive P&L.
I did not see any good range trading opportunities today and given the amount I had lost already it would hace been too much of a gamble. For tomorrow I hope to see some movement to the quality of my level picking. It if range trades I shall stay in only if the market goes immediately on my side.
Friday, January 5, 2007
Notes from Trading Session
If I do 3 bad trades in a row I must cut my size down by a third.
I should always trade at levels , never feel tempted to get into the market just because you think you're missing an opportunity. Others will come.
Look for smaill opportunities in the BUND just a few seconds prior to the open of the US market as someone may be liquidating their positions (just like us!)
Excerpt: Crowds are primitive, and your trading strategies should be simple. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to design a winning trade: cut you losss and run the gains. It never pays to argue with the crownd. Simply use your judgement to decide when to join and when to leave.
I should always trade at levels , never feel tempted to get into the market just because you think you're missing an opportunity. Others will come.
Look for smaill opportunities in the BUND just a few seconds prior to the open of the US market as someone may be liquidating their positions (just like us!)
Excerpt: Crowds are primitive, and your trading strategies should be simple. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to design a winning trade: cut you losss and run the gains. It never pays to argue with the crownd. Simply use your judgement to decide when to join and when to leave.
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
Just not focused
Was I just not focused today or was I trying to sabotage my own actions?
At least I got some sleep, which is good because my body really needed it, yet on the other hand it set me up for a nervous start. I awoke 4 hours after schedule. At the very least I would be late into the office which is not good.
I checked the usual sources of information and did a quick pre-match prep. Perhaps too vague, but it was already 12pm. Put some trades on all with the direction of the previous day, which overall was to gain lost ground. Unfortunately no directional move occured. Market remaind still awaiting the US to take a stance. The only small move did go where expected, but did so long after I thought, from 116.32 to 116.26.
Then things got out of hand for me, caught the release of empoyment figure way at the high of the spike and lost attempting to scramble out. Made 2 out of 3 more bad trades on the settling after the figure. This was the biggest mistake of the day. I made a mental note not to trade like this.
Then the last figure of the day was out (ISM). I pressed the wrong button, partly because the figure were release in stages, and althought these weren't even out line, the market made me pay for my mistake.
At 47 ticks down, i decide to stay out for the day.
My trading manager tells me I should improve the measure of risk spread amongst trades. He could not understand how I go from taking 1 tick profits to sustaining 4 tick losses on subsequent bad trades.
He also reminded me that I should specify what-if scecnarios on my prematch prepsheet. Still, I think these are pretty obvious, at least in the format that my collegues write them. But to make them happy I must still make the effort.
I have also gone through some 30 pages of Trading for a Living by A. Elder.
I've also been thinking it could be a good idea to a positive trendline to manage my trading account, e.g. in order not let it go below a level.
At least I got some sleep, which is good because my body really needed it, yet on the other hand it set me up for a nervous start. I awoke 4 hours after schedule. At the very least I would be late into the office which is not good.
I checked the usual sources of information and did a quick pre-match prep. Perhaps too vague, but it was already 12pm. Put some trades on all with the direction of the previous day, which overall was to gain lost ground. Unfortunately no directional move occured. Market remaind still awaiting the US to take a stance. The only small move did go where expected, but did so long after I thought, from 116.32 to 116.26.
Then things got out of hand for me, caught the release of empoyment figure way at the high of the spike and lost attempting to scramble out. Made 2 out of 3 more bad trades on the settling after the figure. This was the biggest mistake of the day. I made a mental note not to trade like this.
Then the last figure of the day was out (ISM). I pressed the wrong button, partly because the figure were release in stages, and althought these weren't even out line, the market made me pay for my mistake.
At 47 ticks down, i decide to stay out for the day.
My trading manager tells me I should improve the measure of risk spread amongst trades. He could not understand how I go from taking 1 tick profits to sustaining 4 tick losses on subsequent bad trades.
He also reminded me that I should specify what-if scecnarios on my prematch prepsheet. Still, I think these are pretty obvious, at least in the format that my collegues write them. But to make them happy I must still make the effort.
I have also gone through some 30 pages of Trading for a Living by A. Elder.
I've also been thinking it could be a good idea to a positive trendline to manage my trading account, e.g. in order not let it go below a level.
Tuesday, January 2, 2007
New Year: Changed Expectations?
I'm eating my first bowl of cereal of the year whilst soaking in the news from the past Christmas week as part of my daily prep. I know, I should actually be asleep recovering from the health detrimental behaviour of the last couple of days. But what can I do, work is work, you just have to get on with it.
I decide to print out some charts and update the quotes from the last trading day. Immediately I see we have just hit a low that goes way back to August, after a massive sell off throughout the whole of December. Have paper traders readjusted their expectations in this period for the coming year, or have they been securing profits from their activity in the gone year?
I read some news, nothing out of the ordinary has happened. A little terrorist activity here, the odd tragedy there, but nothing that will have any direct and immediate impact on the world economy.
I go through my blog roll: talks on the "January effect", comments from "several reputable analysts" and "forecasters" blabbing on about how we have had a steady rally for "maybe" (and that is the key word) too long and it is time for a crash! Yet, as usual, nobody tells you when!
Timing is extremely important, especially when picking the bursting point. But none of these professionals wants to get their feet wet. So then, why should I?
OK, I'll do it anyway, at least for today: I think the undercurrent is still one of sustained global growth. A recession in the asian giants seems too far away, and would have to follow a prior period of slow down. Therefore demand and consumption from these countries will remain, thus enduring positive commercial opportunities for the rest of the world, especially for the major players in infrastructure industries.
On the other hand stocks have been steadily regaining ground lost in the now long gone post dotcom crash doldrums. The question remains whether the reminder of the dotcom episode has actually made people more cautious or more brave in their attitude towards exposure to risk. I think the steady gains we have seen in the last year are a consequence of slightly cautious yet confident investors trying to establish the next deed to put their money to. However, the herd has not yet followed. And this is where they key lies in regards to timing. If this year we see a steepening of the uptrend, then rest for sure it is a sign that we are approaching a reversal.
Fixed income will be very much dependant on how central banks interpret the general state of the economy. In my opinion they will implement cautionary measures if the growth levels remain high, but may will spread them out so long as inflation, which is their only "official" concern, remains under control. In the short term the prevailing sentiment could be that a rebound is called for after the December sell off, having there been few clearly identifiable reason for such a price difference.
My trades for the day: Bounce off low with day uptrend at least to last session's highs for the morning session. US will probably be quiet being a half day, so Bund price will stay horizontal in the afternoon
I decide to print out some charts and update the quotes from the last trading day. Immediately I see we have just hit a low that goes way back to August, after a massive sell off throughout the whole of December. Have paper traders readjusted their expectations in this period for the coming year, or have they been securing profits from their activity in the gone year?
I read some news, nothing out of the ordinary has happened. A little terrorist activity here, the odd tragedy there, but nothing that will have any direct and immediate impact on the world economy.
I go through my blog roll: talks on the "January effect", comments from "several reputable analysts" and "forecasters" blabbing on about how we have had a steady rally for "maybe" (and that is the key word) too long and it is time for a crash! Yet, as usual, nobody tells you when!
Timing is extremely important, especially when picking the bursting point. But none of these professionals wants to get their feet wet. So then, why should I?
OK, I'll do it anyway, at least for today: I think the undercurrent is still one of sustained global growth. A recession in the asian giants seems too far away, and would have to follow a prior period of slow down. Therefore demand and consumption from these countries will remain, thus enduring positive commercial opportunities for the rest of the world, especially for the major players in infrastructure industries.
On the other hand stocks have been steadily regaining ground lost in the now long gone post dotcom crash doldrums. The question remains whether the reminder of the dotcom episode has actually made people more cautious or more brave in their attitude towards exposure to risk. I think the steady gains we have seen in the last year are a consequence of slightly cautious yet confident investors trying to establish the next deed to put their money to. However, the herd has not yet followed. And this is where they key lies in regards to timing. If this year we see a steepening of the uptrend, then rest for sure it is a sign that we are approaching a reversal.
Fixed income will be very much dependant on how central banks interpret the general state of the economy. In my opinion they will implement cautionary measures if the growth levels remain high, but may will spread them out so long as inflation, which is their only "official" concern, remains under control. In the short term the prevailing sentiment could be that a rebound is called for after the December sell off, having there been few clearly identifiable reason for such a price difference.
My trades for the day: Bounce off low with day uptrend at least to last session's highs for the morning session. US will probably be quiet being a half day, so Bund price will stay horizontal in the afternoon
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