Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Post Match
Off to a good start as I bought into dips at fib levels thinking the market would want to consolidate above yesterday's highs then pushing further. Unfortunately, because I was expecting a longer positive run, I left some lots on side that i ended up having to scratch.
Later in the day I was still betting on a move out of the range, so although I had been well on side several times, i did not make the most of these trades as both extremes were tested.
5 min to 6PM i wanted to scratch a bit out of a possible break above the highs to close in the green. Again, just as i exited to write this, for a very modest gain, the market rallied 19 ticks!.
+16
Later in the day I was still betting on a move out of the range, so although I had been well on side several times, i did not make the most of these trades as both extremes were tested.
5 min to 6PM i wanted to scratch a bit out of a possible break above the highs to close in the green. Again, just as i exited to write this, for a very modest gain, the market rallied 19 ticks!.
+16
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Post Match
08:05 +1 @ 4434 -1 @ 4434 0
08:29 +1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4438 +8
+1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4442 +12
Early trading saw two attempts against daily support trendline, but several more to tests above yesterdays low.
10:55 +1 @ 4426 -1 @ 4434 +8
Another test of the lows. But got out too early.
Several trades scratched due to lack of directional move, even pulled position too early on Durable Goods figure, missing out on the 18 tick drop.
14:42 -1 @ 4422 +1 @ 4424 -2
62% retracement of figure move. Waiting too long for sellers to drive the market back down.
15:57 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4428 +4
Early support turned resistance. Over high volatility only expecting a bounce.
I was tempted to take a short position on both late bounces at 4447 (around a 50% retracement against yesterday's high), but didn't want to risk losing.
+30
08:29 +1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4438 +8
+1 @ 4430 -1 @ 4442 +12
Early trading saw two attempts against daily support trendline, but several more to tests above yesterdays low.
10:55 +1 @ 4426 -1 @ 4434 +8
Another test of the lows. But got out too early.
Several trades scratched due to lack of directional move, even pulled position too early on Durable Goods figure, missing out on the 18 tick drop.
14:42 -1 @ 4422 +1 @ 4424 -2
62% retracement of figure move. Waiting too long for sellers to drive the market back down.
15:57 -1 @ 4432 +1 @ 4428 +4
Early support turned resistance. Over high volatility only expecting a bounce.
I was tempted to take a short position on both late bounces at 4447 (around a 50% retracement against yesterday's high), but didn't want to risk losing.
+30
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Post Match
10:52 +4 @ 4457 -4 @ ~ 4464 +28
In keeping with a bullish view of recovery from set backs I went long on a first tentative on the lows of yesterday, once volume started picking up. Steady buys helped gain some profit and I eited as signs of exhaustion appeared.
14:24 +1 @ 4483 -1 @ 4483 0
Expected a bounce off new support trendline crossing 50% retracement level. This did not materialize and volume was scarce. Luckily existed a few minutes before the market dropped a sudden 10 ticks.
16:04 -1 @ 4476 -1 @ 4483 -7
Went short on the bearish figure. Market rallied and I scrambled out.
16:06 -1 @ 4493 +1 @ 4490 +3
As buying started to weaken, shorted close to the highs for a quick bounce, aiming only at getting back a bit of the loss. Price subsequently dropped back to the lows! Ouch.
17:09 +1 @ 4459 -1 @ 4465 +6
Repetition of the morning trade of the lows.
+30
In keeping with a bullish view of recovery from set backs I went long on a first tentative on the lows of yesterday, once volume started picking up. Steady buys helped gain some profit and I eited as signs of exhaustion appeared.
14:24 +1 @ 4483 -1 @ 4483 0
Expected a bounce off new support trendline crossing 50% retracement level. This did not materialize and volume was scarce. Luckily existed a few minutes before the market dropped a sudden 10 ticks.
16:04 -1 @ 4476 -1 @ 4483 -7
Went short on the bearish figure. Market rallied and I scrambled out.
16:06 -1 @ 4493 +1 @ 4490 +3
As buying started to weaken, shorted close to the highs for a quick bounce, aiming only at getting back a bit of the loss. Price subsequently dropped back to the lows! Ouch.
17:09 +1 @ 4459 -1 @ 4465 +6
Repetition of the morning trade of the lows.
+30
Monday, June 25, 2007
Post Match
09:57 +5 @ ~ 4462 -5 @ ~ 4465 +13
Expecting market to bounce off lows. Let some run, but had to scratch as they came back after being further 6 ticks onside.
15:30 +2 @ 4469 -2 @ 4466
-2 @ 4468 +2 @ 4469
-2 @ 4474 +1 @ 4468 +1 @ 4464
+1 @ 4462 -1 @ 4461
+1 @ 4458 -1 @ 4461 +10
Still expecting a recover went long close to lows, adding on top of further incursions past the lows. Would have liked to hold for longer as the awaited rally materialized just a few minutes later.
16:04 -1 @ 4471 +1 @ 4471 0
Had become a support level midmorning, could have been target for bounce.
17:17 -3 @ ~4506 + 3 @ 4506 0
Expecting a bounce off levels around 5404, struggled to at least end flat, although market did eventually rectrace somewhat.
Having correctly predicted a recovery, it is perhaps a shame I didn't manage the low bounce trade optimally. The urge to take profits amidst hightened volatility weighed negatively against the positive outcome potential.
+23
Expecting market to bounce off lows. Let some run, but had to scratch as they came back after being further 6 ticks onside.
15:30 +2 @ 4469 -2 @ 4466
-2 @ 4468 +2 @ 4469
-2 @ 4474 +1 @ 4468 +1 @ 4464
+1 @ 4462 -1 @ 4461
+1 @ 4458 -1 @ 4461 +10
Still expecting a recover went long close to lows, adding on top of further incursions past the lows. Would have liked to hold for longer as the awaited rally materialized just a few minutes later.
16:04 -1 @ 4471 +1 @ 4471 0
Had become a support level midmorning, could have been target for bounce.
17:17 -3 @ ~4506 + 3 @ 4506 0
Expecting a bounce off levels around 5404, struggled to at least end flat, although market did eventually rectrace somewhat.
Having correctly predicted a recovery, it is perhaps a shame I didn't manage the low bounce trade optimally. The urge to take profits amidst hightened volatility weighed negatively against the positive outcome potential.
+23
Friday, June 22, 2007
Post Match
Initial prediction of further recovery was incorrect, because some strong selling did push the price closer to the lows. Although it remains to be seen if it finally breaks or bounces.
Early gains gave me some breathing space to play scalper games later in the day. Concentrating mostly on new Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. Due to increased volatility with less clear moves a little averaging was called for, as momentum fits and starts gave indications of possible reversals.
Overall a positive week in terms of P&L.
+28
Early gains gave me some breathing space to play scalper games later in the day. Concentrating mostly on new Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. Due to increased volatility with less clear moves a little averaging was called for, as momentum fits and starts gave indications of possible reversals.
Overall a positive week in terms of P&L.
+28
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Post Match
Early trading went well as I succesfully traded some resistance levels on the highs of the day.
Later in the morning I took a blip out of a pause on the selling at 4526, which was an old level.
Over lunch I had left some orders (it's a sim) to go long at the open on yesterday's low. Market did at first go onside, but by the time I was back price had broken through to the intermediate low of 4505.
Trying to recover on small size, my position was unfortunately stopped out automatically at 4504 with only 6 contracts traded, which I deemed probably would not have happened IF I WERE LIVE.
Now in the red I ditched the idea of recovering on small size and small stops, and so went all-in with larger positions and managed to recover. XD. Still these trades were legitimised on my firm conviction price would break the 4500 mark after scalper buyers were exhausted.
After this recovery, intensive trading with smaller size on new fibonacci retracements and extensions proved overall ok as I end up, even having scrambled out of many good trades.
On a day like today I wish there were no stops.
+10
Later in the morning I took a blip out of a pause on the selling at 4526, which was an old level.
Over lunch I had left some orders (it's a sim) to go long at the open on yesterday's low. Market did at first go onside, but by the time I was back price had broken through to the intermediate low of 4505.
Trying to recover on small size, my position was unfortunately stopped out automatically at 4504 with only 6 contracts traded, which I deemed probably would not have happened IF I WERE LIVE.
Now in the red I ditched the idea of recovering on small size and small stops, and so went all-in with larger positions and managed to recover. XD. Still these trades were legitimised on my firm conviction price would break the 4500 mark after scalper buyers were exhausted.
After this recovery, intensive trading with smaller size on new fibonacci retracements and extensions proved overall ok as I end up, even having scrambled out of many good trades.
On a day like today I wish there were no stops.
+10
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Post Match
09:04 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4583 0
Expecting a test on high of 4592. Went 5 ticks on side, but scratched after first retreat before it reached target.
09:50 -1 @4592 +1 @ 4590 +2
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
Rebound off highs before definite break, took profit early as I sensed trouble in reaching 4588.
10:06 +1 @ 4594 -1 @ 4594 0
Trying for a scalp towards retest of new highs, but scratched as market turned back. 2 min later the move happened.
14:21 -1 @ 4606 +1 @ 4602 +2
Upwards move appeared to have stalled ahead of data. Again secured gains early on retreat.
15:06 +1 @ 4599 -1 @ 4599 0
+1 @ 4595 -1 @ 4596 +1
Expecting a 4599 to hold, albeit a minor blip through. Scratched early as recovery took long to develop.
15:53 +1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Picked a bottom for a contrarian trade.
16:05 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
Expected market to hit 4571 level and placed a short scalp trade. Bounced earlier and I scrambled out. At this point I abandoned the idea of guessing bottoms.
+7
5 consecutive days in the green!
Expecting a test on high of 4592. Went 5 ticks on side, but scratched after first retreat before it reached target.
09:50 -1 @4592 +1 @ 4590 +2
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
-1 @4592 +1 @ 4589 +3
Rebound off highs before definite break, took profit early as I sensed trouble in reaching 4588.
10:06 +1 @ 4594 -1 @ 4594 0
Trying for a scalp towards retest of new highs, but scratched as market turned back. 2 min later the move happened.
14:21 -1 @ 4606 +1 @ 4602 +2
Upwards move appeared to have stalled ahead of data. Again secured gains early on retreat.
15:06 +1 @ 4599 -1 @ 4599 0
+1 @ 4595 -1 @ 4596 +1
Expecting a 4599 to hold, albeit a minor blip through. Scratched early as recovery took long to develop.
15:53 +1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Picked a bottom for a contrarian trade.
16:05 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
Expected market to hit 4571 level and placed a short scalp trade. Bounced earlier and I scrambled out. At this point I abandoned the idea of guessing bottoms.
+7
5 consecutive days in the green!
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Post Match
08:41 +1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4568 +2
+1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4566 0
Went long along the lows of what could be the lows of the IB, based on the POC of yesterday afternoon's session. Profit taking was early and scratch was because I didn't fancy loosing on the 1st trade of the day after being on-side.
09:12 +1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4580 0
+1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4577 -3
+1 @ 4583 -1@ 4577 -6
From fullfilled expectations on early trading, was to test the 4585 level where I had resting orders to reverse. High came in 2 ticks away.
11:06 +1 @ 4571 -1 @4577 +6
Narrow trading range induced me to believe the mid-range level of 4571 would allow for sufficient support for a small profit taking excercise.
11:14 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4561 +5
Range extension past low, to pause around the marabuzo of last friday's rally on CPI data.
14:24 +1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4555 +3
+1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4552 0
After slightly bearish ZEW data, expected to see a bounce on my levels of either 52 or 50, where I had resting orders. Unfortunately an unwillingness to risk twice on the same trade left me a ridiculuos profit of 3 ticks against the subsequent potential of 92.
16:28 +1 @ 4563 -1 @ 4567 +4
Market appeared unable to break through the lows, even with the heaviest trading in the day. Scalped long on the first signs of a blip up.
Researching for a bayesian approach to the probability of positive yields from human-filtered trade opportunities, I stumbled upon a study that compares the results of the financial decision making of emotional investors to rational (based on bayesian inference) and noise traders. The model simulation finds that despite their apparent simplistic strategy and non-traditionalist revision of beliefs, emotional traders can even dominate the market and survive with consitent profitability in the long run.
+11
+1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4566 0
Went long along the lows of what could be the lows of the IB, based on the POC of yesterday afternoon's session. Profit taking was early and scratch was because I didn't fancy loosing on the 1st trade of the day after being on-side.
09:12 +1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4580 0
+1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4577 -3
+1 @ 4583 -1@ 4577 -6
From fullfilled expectations on early trading, was to test the 4585 level where I had resting orders to reverse. High came in 2 ticks away.
11:06 +1 @ 4571 -1 @4577 +6
Narrow trading range induced me to believe the mid-range level of 4571 would allow for sufficient support for a small profit taking excercise.
11:14 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4561 +5
Range extension past low, to pause around the marabuzo of last friday's rally on CPI data.
14:24 +1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4555 +3
+1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4552 0
After slightly bearish ZEW data, expected to see a bounce on my levels of either 52 or 50, where I had resting orders. Unfortunately an unwillingness to risk twice on the same trade left me a ridiculuos profit of 3 ticks against the subsequent potential of 92.
16:28 +1 @ 4563 -1 @ 4567 +4
Market appeared unable to break through the lows, even with the heaviest trading in the day. Scalped long on the first signs of a blip up.
Researching for a bayesian approach to the probability of positive yields from human-filtered trade opportunities, I stumbled upon a study that compares the results of the financial decision making of emotional investors to rational (based on bayesian inference) and noise traders. The model simulation finds that despite their apparent simplistic strategy and non-traditionalist revision of beliefs, emotional traders can even dominate the market and survive with consitent profitability in the long run.
+11
Monday, June 18, 2007
Post Match
09:42 +3 @ 4590 -2 @ 4592 -1 @ 4590 +4
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
Friday, June 15, 2007
Post Match
11:36 -1 @ 4543 +1 @ 4543 0
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Post Match
-5 Misclicked
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Post Match
09:22 +1 @ 4356 -1 @ 4358 +2
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Post Match
(08:00 +1 @4424 -1 @ 4407 -15)
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
Monday, June 11, 2007
Post Match
9:28 -1 @ 4399 +1 @ 4405 -6
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
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