08:41 +1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4568 +2
+1 @ 4566 -1 @ 4566 0
Went long along the lows of what could be the lows of the IB, based on the POC of yesterday afternoon's session. Profit taking was early and scratch was because I didn't fancy loosing on the 1st trade of the day after being on-side.
09:12 +1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4580 0
+1 @ 4580 -1 @ 4577 -3
+1 @ 4583 -1@ 4577 -6
From fullfilled expectations on early trading, was to test the 4585 level where I had resting orders to reverse. High came in 2 ticks away.
11:06 +1 @ 4571 -1 @4577 +6
Narrow trading range induced me to believe the mid-range level of 4571 would allow for sufficient support for a small profit taking excercise.
11:14 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4561 +5
Range extension past low, to pause around the marabuzo of last friday's rally on CPI data.
14:24 +1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4555 +3
+1 @ 4552 -1 @ 4552 0
After slightly bearish ZEW data, expected to see a bounce on my levels of either 52 or 50, where I had resting orders. Unfortunately an unwillingness to risk twice on the same trade left me a ridiculuos profit of 3 ticks against the subsequent potential of 92.
16:28 +1 @ 4563 -1 @ 4567 +4
Market appeared unable to break through the lows, even with the heaviest trading in the day. Scalped long on the first signs of a blip up.
Researching for a bayesian approach to the probability of positive yields from human-filtered trade opportunities, I stumbled upon a study that compares the results of the financial decision making of emotional investors to rational (based on bayesian inference) and noise traders. The model simulation finds that despite their apparent simplistic strategy and non-traditionalist revision of beliefs, emotional traders can even dominate the market and survive with consitent profitability in the long run.
+11
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Monday, June 18, 2007
Post Match
09:42 +3 @ 4590 -2 @ 4592 -1 @ 4590 +4
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
+1 @ 4591 -1 @4596 +5
Expected 4392 to be at least tested, and left 1 lot in case of a rally higher, which it did not, so hitting stop.
12:23 -1 @ 4574 +1 @ 4576 -2
After strong move down, expected 4573 to be tested so i could get a couple of ticks. Was 10 minutes early.
15:44 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4575 0
-1 @ 4576 +1 @4573 +3
Traded towards the level once more after several clear top formations.
15:58 -1 @ 4575 +1 @ 4578 -3
Also was going to go for a break after 3 test of level, but it took 4 before price dropped 9 ticks immediately, stopping only 1 tick away from resting orders I had prepared for a rebound around the 4560 level!
Looking back at my levels, I think they were very well picked. But need to improve my stop strategies to allow moves to develop.
+7
Friday, June 15, 2007
Post Match
11:36 -1 @ 4543 +1 @ 4543 0
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Expecting a possible move spike above level. scratched?
11:43 -1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4550 +3
-1 @ 4553 +1 @ 4543 +10
Had resting orders in and convinced spike was short lived after reaching this key level, target was low 30's?¿
12:42 -1 @ 4532 +1 @ 4529 -3
Thinking the market test the 4522 level. Shorted at the bottom?¿? thankfully exited early
14:34 -1 @ 4544 +1 @ 4548 -4
Expected bounce off level
14:35 -1 @ 4557 +1 @ 4562 -5
Expected bounce off another level
14:46 +1 @ 4561 -1 @ 4564 +3
14:50 -1 @ 4566 +1 @ 4564 +2
14:55 +2 @ 4566 -2 @ 4567 +2
15:18 +1 @ 4570 -1 @ 4570 0
15:19 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
All these were range trades on the consolidation area after the move
15:30 +1 @ 4574 -1 @ 4579 +5
+1 @ 4573 -1 @ 4580 +7
Expecting a definite push on to key level
15:40 -1 @ 4578 +1 @ 4572 +6
Bounce off 100% retracement
16:05 -1 @ 4568 +1 @ 4572 -4
Range trading
16:43 +1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4585 -2
+1 @ 4583 -1 @ 4581 +2
+1 @ 4586 -1 @ 4583 -3
Looking for a authoritative breakout that never came despite decent trading volumes.
+15
A GOOD "RESULT" THIS WEEK!
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Post Match
-5 Misclicked
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Because most of the day traded sideways and my strategies were on the extremes of the range I did not execute any orders in the morning.
15:48 +2 @ 4461 -2 @ 4464 +6
16:03 +1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4467 +1
16:08 +1 @ 4470 -1 @ 4468 -2
+1 @ 4466 -1 @ 4466 0
+1 @ 4465 -1 @ 4466 +1
16:36 +1 @ 4472 -1 @ 4477 +5
In the afternoon the market was to test 4465, with me benefitting from a scalp. Beyond that I expected somewhat of a break perhaps to next level at 4487. This break took an hour to materialize, by which time I had loaded and unloaded around the level, eventually missing the opportunity by very little.
+6
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Post Match
09:22 +1 @ 4356 -1 @ 4358 +2
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
+1 @ 4354 -1 @ 4355 +1
Bounce off lows. Then some large orders and spoofing pushed me to pull early.
11:14 -1 @ 4357 +1 @ 4357 0
As bonds had been tanking I reasoned that some stock selling would follow to take advantage of high yields, but this did not materialize.
14:02 +4 @ 4382 -4 @ 4387 -20
I had this order resting to go short at bottom of value area. Stopped out. Although market did actually stop here ahead of announcements.
14:11 -2 @ 4386 -1 @4385 -1 @ 4384 +3
Tried the same trade in case my stop had been too tight. Pulled before figures.
14:30 +2 @ 4389 -1 @ 4378 -1 @ 4377 -33
Went long on bullish headline figures, although import prices were also high, yet there were market forces behind a move downwards before the subsequent positive adjustment. Probably the sensitivity to bond yields we have seen in the last few days. Forced out.
14:46 +1 @ 4393 -1 @4395 +2
+1 @ 4391 -1 @4396 +5
+1 @ 4392 -1 @4390 -2
Went long with a >40000 lot push past the earlier highs, and then added on a dip after some profit taking.
14:55 -2 @ 4389 +1 @4389 +1 @4390 -1
Reversed stance on the view that the highs had held and the buying volume was exhausted, quickly scratched this thought.
15:02 -2 @ 4407 +1 @4406 +1 @ 4411 -3
-1 @ 4407 +1 @4412 -5
Expecting this resistance trendline to hold risked an extra lot, as it had already been on side, and also added another lot on a dip. Stopped offside before it came back to 4395.
15:41 +1 @ 4405 -1 @ 4400 -5
On suggestion waited to see if market held position, then went long after first signs of strong buying hoping not to loose the next move up.
16:09 +1 @ 4395 -1 @ 4409 +14
+1 @ 4393 -1 @ 4406 +13
Also on suggestion had placed resting orders at the bottom of the bell curve that was forming. Profit taking on 1st lot, trailing stop hit 2nd, after failed expectations of 4414 to break with authority. Resistance trendline holds on S&P.
Some consideration on the nature of the moves in bonds leads me to believe there is a lack of global consensus on rate forecasts, and that the cause may be intense selling from a circle of powerful participants, and so yields may have little room to continue rising.
-19
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Post Match
(08:00 +1 @4424 -1 @ 4407 -15)
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
(08:00 +1 @4422 -1 @ 4407 -17)
(Preparation study suggested market could behave today in a similar fashion as yesterday, ending up. I placed orders to go long at open at top of yesterday's Value Area, with a view to hold for the day. Market gapped open breifly holding at 4414, which was Fib1 retracement. Suddenly there was a spike down, possible someone covering a position, which forced me out.
I am unsure whether this trade would have been executed live, because on the graphs it appears that my entry prices never traded.)
08:15 +1 @ 4409 -1 @ 4403 -6
Thinking that spike had been a one-off and that the market may had bottomed and that a top formation had completed i went long once more.
10:04 +1 @ 4412 -1 @ 4414 + 2
On a move up I scalped convinced the level of 4414 would be tested.
10:34 +1 @ 4419 -1 @ 4419 0
Price was pushed past Fib1 level and I expected it to reach yesterday's early highs, after positive UK CPI figures.
10:59 +2 @ 4414 -1 @ 4420 & -1 @ 4418 +10
Bounce order expecting 4414 to hold after last hour of battle ended above it. Profit taking at 4420, Trailing stop hit moved up to 4418
11:23 + 1 @ 4414 -1 @ 4411 -3
Repetition of previous trade. Stopped out
At this point I noticed how the session was indeed playing out quite similar to yesterday, and believed the US might skew the market to the upside like yesterday.
Also noticed a convergence of resistance levels of head and shoulders neckline and 50% retracement around 4440, thus providing a target.
12:44 + 1 @ 4391 -1 @ 4399 + 8
Positional trade for bounce off lows
13:05 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4393 -7
Wanted to buy on dip after exiting previous position.
14:26 +1 @ 4399 -1 @ 4392 -7
Expecting push higher to inminent. stop target was at 93 but flipped too quick to 92.
14:58 -1 @ 4387 +1 @ 4386 +1
Scalp towards level.
15:00 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4397 +11
15:36 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4391 +5
Convinced we were in for a repetition of yesterday's drive back up, went long at low level of 4386 after it had been tested several times. Added to position as I had missed this opportunity several times being onside but not exiting due to higher expectations.
15:50 +1 @4396 -1 @ 4395 -1
Thought we were once again pushing higher
16:02 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4386 0
16:06 +1 @4386 -1 @ 4382 -4
16:11 +1 @4387 -1 @ 4384 -3
Several wrong assesments, decided to risk no further to the upside.
Market then took a down turn, so I regard this as a sensible option.
(-24 if we count 1st trade?)
+8
Monday, June 11, 2007
Post Match
9:28 -1 @ 4399 +1 @ 4405 -6
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
After battle on volume over early levels with a bias to the downside I expected a bounce off 4392 which was top of friday's Value Area so I tried to ride the last of the move towards the target.
Throughout the morning I struggled to find a reason to trade as the market did not swing as much as last week, so decided to wait and see if the US would provide an excuse.
14:59 +1 @ 4411 -1 @ 4401 -10
Given the circumstances, 1 trade seemed too little for the whole day, so I decided to get involved after RSI was oversold and there was decent volume, expecting this to be the indicator for a a push to further recovery.
The afternoon session confirms the market seems to stay within the day's range, and may continue like this till the first bit of data is release on Wednesday.
16:37 +1 @ 4400 - 1 4405 +5
Placed a resting order in case price reached the day's extremes, which was hit. Took profit after a reversal, hoping to get back in at the same level. Still keeping size to the minimum and using tighter stops to keep possible losses at a minimum.
17:45 -1 @ 4425 +1 4426 -1
Upper extreme of the range expecting bounce, tried to scratch after coming back from onside because of risk of breakout, lost 1 tick in the process.
Conclusion, preparation from rather disparate ranges from last week provided very few levels to play with in the comparitively tight market of today. Situation is likely to change by Wednesday.
-12
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